Issue 21

HOT SEAT: 

Interview with Interview with Johan-Paul Verschuure, Director of Rebel Ports and Logistics

• • Your company has been following very closely the impact of the Red Sea crisis in Mediterranean ports. Can you please give us a brief outlook how has this impact evolved during the first trimester of the year (2025)?

Passages through the Suez remain risky and liners keep rerouting significant volumes around South Africa. The networks are increasingly adjusted to the rerouting as a base case. As such, the situation did not become easier. However, with somewhat cooling demand, the situation in the Mediterranean ports remain challenging but with a bit more breathing space across the board. Disruptions and ripples in global container logistics balanced system, may cause additional challenges in ports, even though the demand outlook is somewhat darkening.

• • The unfolding trade war could have a significant effect in maritime freight volumes and flows. What major changes do you expect to happen in the next couple of years?

The question will be how much logistic disruptions will be witnessed in the next few months following the sharp decline in trade between Asia and the US. Blank sailing are reported to increase drastically, which will cause disruptions in the flow of full and also empty containers. This will be mainly focused on the Asia-US tradelane mostly but is likely to spill over to other trades and therefore ports.

It is very difficult to forecast if flows of commodities with high levies will just dry up, will be shifting to other trading partners, or replaced by more domestic production in the US (and on what time scale). It will then also be equally challenging to balance the logistic system where the containers will be coming from or need to go to. Logistic shocks may make the situation in the Med ports more challenging again in the next several months.

Secondly if the additional penalties on Chinese built vessels will stay effective, shipping lines will try to optimize their networks. Routings may shift to Canadian and Mexican ports, it can result in more transshipment in the Caribbean, or new entities may be setup or step in to minimize penalties.

• • Container shipping lines expect 2025 to be also a very profitable year. After the acquisition of Hutchison by Blackrock and TIL (MSC), do you expect any new major operation this year coming from the shipping lines? 

It will be interesting to follow in what form the acquisition of Hutchison may and can take place at all. Naturally the Chinese concerns will need to be effectively managed, but the transaction will result in a situation that some liners calling at multi-user facilities currently managed by Hutchison, which in the future will be managed by a competing and world’s largest shipping line. In some places MSC/TiL will be managing neighboring facilities even. Strategic reactions are likely in some locations.

• • What do you think about the future potential of the Arctic route? 

Naturally the shorter distance on some port-to-port connections can lead to shorter transit times and lower costs, which some liners hope to exploit. We should not let that happen. In 2019 CMA CGM pledged to not use this route. Hopefully all liners join when it would become more feasible.

If not, a lack of intermediate port call between (North) Far East Asia and Europe makes it a very focused port-to-port call, which makes utilisation of the vessel more challenging. And naturally challenges remain in the seasonality of the passage and that no service can be planned throughout the entire year. Hopefully climate initiatives and our actions result in that the temperature development will ensure the passage closes up the entire year very soon again. In that case we should not be worried about the large environmental impact large container vessels will have when sailing in that region..or even the nightmare of an accident.